Before we get to the predictions, a couple of important notes: (1.) I’m not a Clinton supporter. I believe Hillary Clinton is one of the most wretched candidates to ever run for office. I believe she is a liar, corrupt beyond words, and immoral on a truly epic scale. Nothing she says or does will ever change that; I have 40 years of evidence to support the claim, and I stand by it.
(2.) I’m not a Trump supporter. Although I think he’s been mistreated by the media in many respects, Trump deserves a great deal of criticism. Not only is he insensitive and offensive, he’s also been a longtime supporter of liberal causes and candidates, including Mrs. Clinton herself. While some of his positions are surely conservative and in line with the Constitution, many are not, and some that are will probably never happen. Mr. Trump has a long history of lying and misleading people to accomplish his own personal goals; and I don’t think I can take any of his promises too seriously.
(3.) On the eve of the election, I’m not 100 percent sure who I’m voting for. I am 100 percent sure, however, it won’t be Hillary Clinton. The only reason I’m considering voting for the Republican nominee is because of the importance of the Supreme Court and the slim hope he might surprise us all by being a true constitutionalist, although I confess I have no evidence to show you to back this up. All I can do is HOPE if he wins, he’ll have the right people around him and he’ll listen to them.
I wanted to lay those three points out right off the bat to show I don’t have a dog in this fight. I believe we are headed for trouble either way, and I don’t think either candidate truly deserves my vote. There are many people I love and respect who disagree and are voting for Hillary Clinton to stop Donald Trump. I know many others voting for Donald Trump to stop Hillary Clinton. I don’t think either is an acceptable option (at least, as of right now).
So, on to the projections. Below are two sets of projections. One is my own projection and the other is my dad’s projection. You’ll notice they are very similar and both unconventional. After much discussion held over many weeks, I can safely say the reasons behind our projections are similar and can be summarized as follows: (1.) We believe most polls weigh certain voter group too highly, especially for minority voters, who tend to vote for Democrats. We believe minority voter turnout will drop compared to what occurred in 2008 and 2012, and we think the drop will be substantial. (2.) We believe many polls are weighing Gary Johnson’s support too highly. I don’t believe a poll that shows Johnson with 5 points or more is accurate. (3.) Some polls don’t have Jill Stein, the socialist candidate, in the race, especially if she’s not officially on the ballot. However, she will get SOME votes in every state, and almost every single one will be taking support away from Mrs. Clinton. (4.) The enthusiasm amongst Trump supporters is much stronger than amongst Clinton supporters. This is evidenced by the large event turnout Trump has had throughout the campaign, including recently in key swing states such as New Hampshire and Florida. (5.) We believe there are hundreds of thousands and probably millions of voters who are scared to admit they are voting for Donald Trump, due to his offensive comments about women, his reputation in the media, and other similar factors. We think this is worth about 2 percentage points in the polls. Combined with polling we believe to inappropriately apply 2008/2012 models, we believe the polling could be off by as much as 3-4 points in some states, including in Pennsylvania, which Barack Obama won with only 52 percent of the vote. This effectively means if a poll is tied or close to tied (remember that there is a margin of error in every poll), we are generally going to give Trump a slight advantage.
With all that said, let me say this: Although my poll shows a surprising result, I have absolutely no faith in this theory of mine (and my father’s); it’s just a theory. If voter turnout is radically different than I expect and in line with current polling, Clinton will win in a historic electoral college landslide (not popular vote landslide). We’ll see.
Special thanks to 270 to Win for its great website, which we used to build our maps!
Dad’s 2016 Election Prediction:
Justin’s 2016 Election Prediction:
Dad’s Map File: http://thenewrevere.com/?attachment_id=24012
Justin’s Map File: http://thenewrevere.com/?attachment_id=24013